Guest blogger and well-known industry consultant Neville Stein contemplates the post Coronavirus future of our industry.

Much of my work with clients involves helping them consider how external forces – those that they have no control over – might impact upon their business. Well, hands up - I never anticipated that a little know city in China would become the centre of a global pandemic, wreaking havoc on many industries including our own, but that is where the lesson lies. The simple truth is that we can have a contingency plan for events we can anticipate, but for those we can’t or didn’t anticipate all we can do is react. Obviously, you may well say! But what I must stress is that we need to react with thought, wisdom, planning, and purpose.  Yes, the coronavirus was a real curveball.

The optimist in me believes that in a post coronavirus world there will still be a demand for garden plants, but there’s a strong chance, at least in the short to midterm, that the economic climate for growers will be very challenging indeed. As we speak, the challenges are mounting – up and down the country there are glasshouses and nursery beds full of crops that are now saleable yet demand has plummeted. Some demand has been created by an uplift in online sales, but there is no way this will fully replace the volume sales normally achieved through garden centres and retail nurseries during the spring.  To make matters worse growers face a double whammy, they have already paid for the inputs for those crops, yet now are faced with losing that investment as crops cannot be sold. How then should growers respond to this crisis?

First and foremost now is the time to really focus on the immediate issue – long term planning can wait. The priority is to stabilise your business and that means keeping an eye on assistance from the government. If accessing the help seems confusing, delegate it to your accountant. However, the Gov.Uk site is surprisingly user friendly and one can sign up for email updates and information simply and quickly. Also, remember that obtaining loans, no matter how cheap they are, might only be kicking the can down the track – loans still need to be repaid! Another key task is to produce a cash flow forecast – difficult to estimate your sales – we don’t know when things will return to a resemblance of normality – but can you accurately work out your outgoings? If you can’t, then you should be able to. Learn how and do it quickly.  Minimise them where you can which means cutting out all unnecessary expenditure, and of course, delaying payments where you can – but do keep in close contact with your creditors – those you owe money to –  and agree a payment plan with them.  You will need them onside in the future.

Once you have worked out what help you can get from the government, produced a cash flow and worked out payment plans what else can you do? Well, keep your brand alive with your customers. Get on the telephone to them, ask them how they are doing, and offer to help them out with any problems – take this time to develop a stronger relationship with them. Believe me, if you help them out through this time of crisis they will remain loyal to you. Also, keep up your presence on social media – think of interesting stories to share with your followers, perhaps use this time to educate them, help them to help their customers, and, provide them with content which they can share on their social media sites. And not be too cynical here as I am sure many of you will be helping anyway, get involved in community projects that may earn you nothing financially, but gain you reputation and good PR. Donate and plant flower beds outside a hospital, care home, or even council roundabout for example to raise morale, – 2 metres away from people of course!! Don’t let good stock just go to waste.

It is very difficult to consider what the future will look like. We don’t yet know the effect on the economy, or indeed whether there will be some significant cultural changes in people’s behaviours; yet what we can learn and take forward with us is that businesses that will survive are those that have a lot of cash in their balance sheet! In the future think about building up a few reserves of available cash if you can. We have also learnt that to respond to a fast-moving crisis one needs to make decisions quickly, so look at how you can strip out bureaucracy from your business, be light and nimble and responsive to market conditions – of course, the bigger you are the more difficult that is to do.

Life in the future is going to be very different – but growers are optimistic by nature. I am hoping and betting that many people re-engage with nature, simplicity and the wellbeing of their family and community, and that surely puts our industry in pole position to supply these renewed consumer needs.  Let’s capitalise on this, build our grower communities and work together to rebuild our markets. In the meantime, stay safe and well, oh - and remember the ‘Happy Birthday’ bit, because it may literally be a whole new world out there for us when this virus has passed.